USD Index to head lower toward the 103.20 unless the May NFP surprises on the upside – ING

Economists at ING discuss USD outlook ahead of US NFP job data. 

Dollar bias looks lower unless NFP comes in strong

We would say that an on-consensus +195K increase in jobs, a 3.5% unemployment rate and a 0.3% MoM increase in hourly earnings would not be enough to shift the needle from the view that the Fed pauses in June and the Dollar can stay gently offered.

High dollar deposit rates will stop the Dollar from selling off too quickly, but unless the May NFP surprises on the upside we would say today's DXY bias lies towards the 103.20 area.

See – Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Banks expect labor market to lose momentum only slowly