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20 May 2013
Flash: China vrs Euroland effects on currencies – JP Morgan
FXstreet.com (London) - JP Morgan's Jan Loeys, Global Assest Allocation, note’s that China continues to decelerate to its weakest rate in a decade (estimate 7.6% this year), outside of the 2008 global recession.
They said that given the links between China and the commodity exporters, China’s performance alone implies about a 3% drop year-on-year in commodity currencies due to worsening current account balances and lower rates in most countries (Brazil is the exception). Furthermore, JP Morgan suggests that absent China’s sluggishness, most currencies probably would have been stable this year due to high global liquidity (ZAR is the exception on South Africa-specific shocks).
When they are comparing Europe’s recession, JP Morgan note hat it has been less contagious for currencies/supportive of the broad dollar. EUR/USD is down 2.3% this year and the currency is outperforming 75% of currencies since rates in other G-10 and EM countries have fallen more than in Europe this year.
They said that given the links between China and the commodity exporters, China’s performance alone implies about a 3% drop year-on-year in commodity currencies due to worsening current account balances and lower rates in most countries (Brazil is the exception). Furthermore, JP Morgan suggests that absent China’s sluggishness, most currencies probably would have been stable this year due to high global liquidity (ZAR is the exception on South Africa-specific shocks).
When they are comparing Europe’s recession, JP Morgan note hat it has been less contagious for currencies/supportive of the broad dollar. EUR/USD is down 2.3% this year and the currency is outperforming 75% of currencies since rates in other G-10 and EM countries have fallen more than in Europe this year.