Back
18 Sep 2014
EUR/CHF: Negative bias prevailing on big scale - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - Paul Meggyesi and Thomas Anthonj, FX Strategists at JP Morgan, see a negative bias in EUR/CHF prevailing on big scale.
Key Quotes
"Following the failure to clear the decisive T-junction at 1.2650 (int. 38.2 %) in EUR/CHF in May last year and the break below 1.2150 (int. 76.4 %) in early March this year we see a negative bias prevailing on big scale."
"This implies that we might still be missing a broader wave 2 setback (projected targets at 1.1359 and at 1.0677 = 50/76.4 %) if not a re-test of the 2011 low at 1.0068 in case the 5th wave decline is still missing."
"Both scenarios however implythat the SNB will ultimately surrender its line of defense at 1.2000, which would be confirmed on a break below 1.1974 (pivot). On the upside and in order to weaken the prevailing down-bias, it would now take breaks above 1.2119 and 1.2141 (minor 38.2 %/pivot)."
"Such breaks would definitely ease the down- pressure but to reverse the negative bias as such in favor of an extended rally to 1.2313 if not to 1.2507 (int. 76.4 % on 2 scales), it would take additional breaks above pivotal resistance between 1.2218 and 1.2240/52."
Key Quotes
"Following the failure to clear the decisive T-junction at 1.2650 (int. 38.2 %) in EUR/CHF in May last year and the break below 1.2150 (int. 76.4 %) in early March this year we see a negative bias prevailing on big scale."
"This implies that we might still be missing a broader wave 2 setback (projected targets at 1.1359 and at 1.0677 = 50/76.4 %) if not a re-test of the 2011 low at 1.0068 in case the 5th wave decline is still missing."
"Both scenarios however implythat the SNB will ultimately surrender its line of defense at 1.2000, which would be confirmed on a break below 1.1974 (pivot). On the upside and in order to weaken the prevailing down-bias, it would now take breaks above 1.2119 and 1.2141 (minor 38.2 %/pivot)."
"Such breaks would definitely ease the down- pressure but to reverse the negative bias as such in favor of an extended rally to 1.2313 if not to 1.2507 (int. 76.4 % on 2 scales), it would take additional breaks above pivotal resistance between 1.2218 and 1.2240/52."