USD/CNY to stay in the 7.10-7.35 range for the rest of the year and end at 7.20 – TDS

The Yuan has taken a beating, slumping by >5% YTD in spot for both onshore and offshore, and is visibly one of the worst performing currencies in Asia against the USD. Economists at TD Securities analyze USD/CNY outlook.

A rangey USD/CNY in Q4

We expect USD/CNY to stay in a 7.10-7.35 range for the rest of the year, primarily because the USD is likely to enter a period of choppiness ahead. 

Data surprises have now turned in favour of China vs. the US, undermining the ‘bad China news is good news for the USD’ narrative while USD exhaustion may have occurred. However, we reckon the PBoC may look for some trade-weighted CNY weakness in the near-term to support exports, which should pin USD/CNY at 7.20 by year-end despite our bearish USD view.