AUD/USD Price Analysis: Consolidating after pull back from May 3 high
- AUD/USD is consolidating after pulling back from its May 3 peak.
- A break above 0.6624 would likely result in a volatile move higher
- AUD/USD may have formed a Measured Move with a final target at around 0.6690.
AUD/USD is trading in the 0.6610s on Monday as it continues its sideways consolidation after pulling back from its May 3 peak.
Despite oscillating sideways for the last week, the pair is probably in a short-term uptrend, evidenced by the rising sequence of peaks and troughs since the April 19 lows.
AUD/USD 4-hour Chart
Given the old saying that “the trend is your friend”, therefore, the odds favor AUD/USD going higher.
AUD/USD has attempted but failed to break above the 0.6624 resistance level on several occasions. Nevertheless, a break would provide confirmation of further upside to the next target at the 0.6649 May 3 high.
Assuming AUD/USD successfully breaks above 0.6624 it will probably result in a highly volatile move to the upside, since the level has been touched on multiple occasions which usually results in a strong move once broken.
The next target higher would probably be at around 0.6680-90, generated by a possible Measured Move pattern that AUD/USD has formed since the April 19 lows.
Measured Moves are like large zig-zags composed of three waves, labeled A, B and C. The general expectation is that wave C will be either the same length as A or a Fibonacci 0.681 of A.
Wave C has already reached the Fibonacci 0.681 target at the May 3 highs, however, it could also achieve the target where C=A at 0.6690.
A decisive break below the red trendline would be a bearish sign, suggesting a potential reversal of the trend.
A decisive break would be one accompanied by a long red candle which closes near its low or three red candles in a row that break below the trendline.