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5 Dec 2014
US NFP to capture the spotlight today – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Team note that today’s US Nonfarm payrolls will capture the spotlight today, and anticipate it to remain strong.
Key Quotes
”In FX, the USD is stronger today across the board, but the moves are limited to gains of 0.10% against most currencies, except the GBP, which is down by 0.3% (US$1.5630) while the Yen and NZD are both off by 0.2% to ¥120 and US$0.7770 respectively. The AUD is currently off 0.10% at US$0.8375, not far off from the day lows at US$0.8369.”
“USD Nonfarm payrolls will capture the spotlight and we look for headline payroll growth to remain particularly strong with an above-consensus +270K gain in November (consensus at 230K). Private job growth will comprise the majority of the gains, rising 259K (consensus 223K), though we expect some positivity in the report to be offset by a modest increase in the unemployment rate to 5.9% from 5.8% (market looking for a flat 5.8% print).”
“Wages will also be in focus, and we look for earnings to rise a stronger 0.2% m/m as hours remain unchanged at 34.6. The October trade balance will play second fiddle to payrolls but will nevertheless be watched for GDP implications, and we look for the deficit to narrow to -$40.2B from -$43.0B. On the speaker circuit, Fed’s Mester (hawk, voter) and Vice-Chair Fischer (dove) will make remarks.”
Key Quotes
”In FX, the USD is stronger today across the board, but the moves are limited to gains of 0.10% against most currencies, except the GBP, which is down by 0.3% (US$1.5630) while the Yen and NZD are both off by 0.2% to ¥120 and US$0.7770 respectively. The AUD is currently off 0.10% at US$0.8375, not far off from the day lows at US$0.8369.”
“USD Nonfarm payrolls will capture the spotlight and we look for headline payroll growth to remain particularly strong with an above-consensus +270K gain in November (consensus at 230K). Private job growth will comprise the majority of the gains, rising 259K (consensus 223K), though we expect some positivity in the report to be offset by a modest increase in the unemployment rate to 5.9% from 5.8% (market looking for a flat 5.8% print).”
“Wages will also be in focus, and we look for earnings to rise a stronger 0.2% m/m as hours remain unchanged at 34.6. The October trade balance will play second fiddle to payrolls but will nevertheless be watched for GDP implications, and we look for the deficit to narrow to -$40.2B from -$43.0B. On the speaker circuit, Fed’s Mester (hawk, voter) and Vice-Chair Fischer (dove) will make remarks.”