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28 Jan 2015
ECB balancesheet to contract in Feb, then grow to €3.3tn by Sep 2016 – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch review their estimates for the evolution of the central bank’s balance sheet with the unveiling of ECB’s QE.
Key Quotes
“In the short term, liquidity may well decline, with excess potentially below €100bn. Longer term, as QE will run over at least 18M, longer than any of the Fed’s QE programs taken in isolation, we find that the ECB should comfortably exceed the balance-sheet target of €3tn that it had considered last year, even after accounting for changes in other items. In fact, ECB repo operations on aggregate could drive another c.€120bn balancesheet expansion.”
“Thus, we will look for opportunities to receive long-dated OIS forwards should they be overly affected by front-end volatility in the coming weeks.”
“In the German front-end, the low OIS rates and effect of QE purchases are likely to be compounded by the changing regulatory framework. We see 2y yields at around -20bp throughout 2015.”
Key Quotes
“In the short term, liquidity may well decline, with excess potentially below €100bn. Longer term, as QE will run over at least 18M, longer than any of the Fed’s QE programs taken in isolation, we find that the ECB should comfortably exceed the balance-sheet target of €3tn that it had considered last year, even after accounting for changes in other items. In fact, ECB repo operations on aggregate could drive another c.€120bn balancesheet expansion.”
“Thus, we will look for opportunities to receive long-dated OIS forwards should they be overly affected by front-end volatility in the coming weeks.”
“In the German front-end, the low OIS rates and effect of QE purchases are likely to be compounded by the changing regulatory framework. We see 2y yields at around -20bp throughout 2015.”