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6 Feb 2015
China Q1 GDP and CPI to come out weak – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Nomura, gives the forecasts for China's Q1, Q2 GDP and the CPI, anticipating inflation to drop significantly in January.
Key Quotes
“leading indicators suggest that growth has lost momentum in January: the official PMI fell into contraction territory (below 50) for the first time since September 2012, the MNI business sentiment index also declined notably, while the HSBC PMI remained below 50.”
“Weaker growth momentum could be the result of both softer external demand and domestic challenges, such as high debt and a property market correction that still has a long way to go.”
“We continue to expect GDP growth to slow to 7.1% y-o-y in Q1 and to 6.7% in Q2.”
“We expect CPI inflation to drop significantly to 0.8% y-o-y in January from 1.5% in December due to lower food and services inflation, falling fuel prices and lunar new year distortions.”
“PPI deflation should deepen to 3.9% y-o-y in January from 3.3% in December due to severe overcapacity in upstream sectors and falling commodity prices.”
Key Quotes
“leading indicators suggest that growth has lost momentum in January: the official PMI fell into contraction territory (below 50) for the first time since September 2012, the MNI business sentiment index also declined notably, while the HSBC PMI remained below 50.”
“Weaker growth momentum could be the result of both softer external demand and domestic challenges, such as high debt and a property market correction that still has a long way to go.”
“We continue to expect GDP growth to slow to 7.1% y-o-y in Q1 and to 6.7% in Q2.”
“We expect CPI inflation to drop significantly to 0.8% y-o-y in January from 1.5% in December due to lower food and services inflation, falling fuel prices and lunar new year distortions.”
“PPI deflation should deepen to 3.9% y-o-y in January from 3.3% in December due to severe overcapacity in upstream sectors and falling commodity prices.”