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23 Apr 2015
China: Growing downside risk to Q1 GDP growth - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - The downside risk to Q1 GDP growth are rising, according to Nomura's Economics Team.
Key Quotes
"We think a risk has emerged that could shake confidence in the recent economic recovery. Based on our tracking of key economic data for January and February, 2015 Q1 real GDP grew less than 1% q-q annualized. This was because private consumption and private capex were weak and imports rose more than anticipated."
"We expect private consumption to enter a clearer recovery process from midyear in the wake of wage increases and think the rise in imports in Jan–Feb was owing to one-time factors and is not sustainable. We think that capex has been weighed down in part by weakness related to electric utilities and that it will gather momentum from Q2."
Key Quotes
"We think a risk has emerged that could shake confidence in the recent economic recovery. Based on our tracking of key economic data for January and February, 2015 Q1 real GDP grew less than 1% q-q annualized. This was because private consumption and private capex were weak and imports rose more than anticipated."
"We expect private consumption to enter a clearer recovery process from midyear in the wake of wage increases and think the rise in imports in Jan–Feb was owing to one-time factors and is not sustainable. We think that capex has been weighed down in part by weakness related to electric utilities and that it will gather momentum from Q2."