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14 Oct 2015
DXY seen around 93.00/94.00 by year-end – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of strategists at Westpac, the greenback – tracked by the US Dollar Index – could slip towards the 93.00/94.00 band by end of 2015.
Key Quotes
“USD vulnerable to yet more downside near term, the currency overvalued vis-à-vis recent trends in yield spreads and risk premia metrics”.
“Yield spreads on a DXY weighted basis suggest the USD index is a good 1.5-2.5 big figures overvalued while the VIX and other vol metrics suggest the USD has decent downside catch up potential vs an array of EM currencies”.
“That, along with near term downside risks to US data emanating from the recent tightening in financial conditions flag a rocky near term USD outlook”.
“USD index may trade down to 93/94 into year’s end. The longer term uptrend in the USD though likely remains intact”.
“Soft data trends in the near term will be a challenge for the USD but 2016 should still see a relatively healthier growth picture emerge than many parts of the world”.
Key Quotes
“USD vulnerable to yet more downside near term, the currency overvalued vis-à-vis recent trends in yield spreads and risk premia metrics”.
“Yield spreads on a DXY weighted basis suggest the USD index is a good 1.5-2.5 big figures overvalued while the VIX and other vol metrics suggest the USD has decent downside catch up potential vs an array of EM currencies”.
“That, along with near term downside risks to US data emanating from the recent tightening in financial conditions flag a rocky near term USD outlook”.
“USD index may trade down to 93/94 into year’s end. The longer term uptrend in the USD though likely remains intact”.
“Soft data trends in the near term will be a challenge for the USD but 2016 should still see a relatively healthier growth picture emerge than many parts of the world”.