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10 Dec 2015
BoE: Policy likely unchanged but voting pattern and minutes on radar – Lloyds Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Lloyds Bank, suggests that the BoE provides the focus for today, with policy expected to remain unchanged and voting pattern and minutes to be keenly observed.
Key Quotes
“No change in policy universally expected, and an unchanged 8-1 vote split is anticipated in the MPC minutes. Excepting further marked weakness in oil prices, data since the November MPC meeting and the Inflation Report so far have evolved broadly in line with expectations.”
“As such, the main interest may lie around any commentary on recent movements in market interest rates, notably the market-implied timing of a tightening in Bank Rate. Having been pulled in somewhat after the ECB’s policy loosening last week, one hike is fully priced around the turn of the year, later than on our central view of August 2016.”
“GBPUSD has failed to decisively break the 1.48 – 1.50 area of support. It caught a bid tone yesterday, triggered by a broader USD sell off, and surged as far as 1.5196. Given the MPC is unlikely to change stance, we favour GBP to carry forward its momentum. Initial resistance in GBPUSD will be met at 1.5250/75, followed by 1.5370/80. Support will initially be found at 1.50/1.4950. EURGBP will follow GBPUSD, with initial support at 0.7230/20 followed by 0.7175/65. Topside resistance comes in at 0.7295/0.7305 and then 0.7380/90.”
Key Quotes
“No change in policy universally expected, and an unchanged 8-1 vote split is anticipated in the MPC minutes. Excepting further marked weakness in oil prices, data since the November MPC meeting and the Inflation Report so far have evolved broadly in line with expectations.”
“As such, the main interest may lie around any commentary on recent movements in market interest rates, notably the market-implied timing of a tightening in Bank Rate. Having been pulled in somewhat after the ECB’s policy loosening last week, one hike is fully priced around the turn of the year, later than on our central view of August 2016.”
“GBPUSD has failed to decisively break the 1.48 – 1.50 area of support. It caught a bid tone yesterday, triggered by a broader USD sell off, and surged as far as 1.5196. Given the MPC is unlikely to change stance, we favour GBP to carry forward its momentum. Initial resistance in GBPUSD will be met at 1.5250/75, followed by 1.5370/80. Support will initially be found at 1.50/1.4950. EURGBP will follow GBPUSD, with initial support at 0.7230/20 followed by 0.7175/65. Topside resistance comes in at 0.7295/0.7305 and then 0.7380/90.”