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16 Dec 2015
UK jobs report preview: What to expect of GBP/USD?
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair is trading with marginal gains after two-day slide as investors await the FOMC rate decision. But, the immediate focus is on the UK employment report – Claimant count change, unemployment rate and average earnings.
Focus on Average earnings
The claimant count change is projected to show a 0.9K increase, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 5.3%. An uptick in the employment number brings the BOE closer to a rate hike since it is expected to translate into higher consumption and higher inflation.
However, the problem of low productivity in the UK is well known and employers usually higher more to compensate for the same. Hence, higher employment figures may not be enough to push up Sterling.
The local currency would need a strong average earnings number to move higher. Average earnings, including bonus are seen falling from 3.0% to 2.5% for the three-month period ending in October. Excluding bonus the number is seen falling from 2.5% to 2.3%.
A better-than-expected wage pay figure would help the GBP/USD pair remain above 1.50 levels ahead of the Fed rate decision. On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected number would expose the downside to a possible USD rally ahead of the Fed rate decision.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 1.5087 (61.8% of Apr-Jun rally), above which the pair faces a major hurdle at 1.5113 (hourly 200-MA+23.6% of 1.5819-1.4895). A break higher would expose 1.5170 (June 1 low). On the other hand, a break below 1.50 would open doors for a drop to 1.4957 (Dec 8 low), under which the pair could target 1.4895 (latest cyclical low).
Focus on Average earnings
The claimant count change is projected to show a 0.9K increase, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 5.3%. An uptick in the employment number brings the BOE closer to a rate hike since it is expected to translate into higher consumption and higher inflation.
However, the problem of low productivity in the UK is well known and employers usually higher more to compensate for the same. Hence, higher employment figures may not be enough to push up Sterling.
The local currency would need a strong average earnings number to move higher. Average earnings, including bonus are seen falling from 3.0% to 2.5% for the three-month period ending in October. Excluding bonus the number is seen falling from 2.5% to 2.3%.
A better-than-expected wage pay figure would help the GBP/USD pair remain above 1.50 levels ahead of the Fed rate decision. On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected number would expose the downside to a possible USD rally ahead of the Fed rate decision.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 1.5087 (61.8% of Apr-Jun rally), above which the pair faces a major hurdle at 1.5113 (hourly 200-MA+23.6% of 1.5819-1.4895). A break higher would expose 1.5170 (June 1 low). On the other hand, a break below 1.50 would open doors for a drop to 1.4957 (Dec 8 low), under which the pair could target 1.4895 (latest cyclical low).