USD/CAD inter-markets: Seems all set for a bullish break-out

Brexit-led turmoil in global financial markets continues to dent investor risk appetite and boost the safe-haven appeal for the US Dollar. This coupled with a slump in crude oil prices on renewed worries over global supply glut led to a sharp recovery for the USD/CAD pair on Tuesday. 

Falling US and Canadian 10-years treasury yields remained supportive of the prevalent global risk-aversion sentiment. However, a tepid recovery in yields accompanied with a swift bounce in crude oil prices (from an important support near $46.00 handle) restricted further appreciating move for the USD/CAD pair around the very important 100-day SMA resistance, currently near 1.3040-45 region.

Meanwhile, a slight miss from the US trade balance data and a surprisingly strong US ISM non-manufacturing PMI failed to provide the required momentum to lift the pair beyond 100-day SMA strong resistance, despite of a dismal Canadian trade balance data.

With a high degree of correlation with crude oil prices, traders now turn their attention to the weekly US crude supplies report by API, later on Wednesday, before confronting the official EIA weekly inventory data on Thursday, in order to determine the near-term direction for Loonie. Moreover, investors will also scrutinize the FOMC June meeting minutes that might provide some outlook over the future trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy action, and could drive the US Dollar in the near-term, ahead of Friday's crucial NFP data.

From a technical perspective, sustained weakness below $46.00 for crude oil prices would open room for a near-term corrective move for the commodity, eventually helping the USD/CAD pair to break through 100-day SMA strong resistance and continue with its near-term appreciating move.