Forex Flash: USD positively correlated with US jobs vs consensus - Westpac

According to Westpac, "expectations for the headline reading on Feb US non-farm payrolls have crept higher in recent days, particularly after the firm ADP private payrolls report." Bloomberg is now 165K after 157K in January.

The bank adds: "Westpac remains below consensus at 130K though we agree with the median 7.9% forecast for unemployment. Correlations are shifting but it seems most likely that USD will be positively correlated with the jobs number vs consensus."

Mar 8, 2013

Forex Flash: Aussie rallying with a strong global growth? Not anymore – TDS

According to Singapore based analyst at TD Securities Alvin Pontoh: “From around the time when the ECB announced the OMT last September (fulfilling Draghi’s promise to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro), the Aussie dollar’s correlation with US growth indicators began to turn negative,” Alvin notes, adding: “That is to say, positive growth surprises out of the US — still the world’s largest and most important economy — was met by lower, not higher AUD, as the USD reverted to its historical role as a 'growth currency,'” he concludes.

Forex Flash: Seeking opportunities to sell EUR/USD on rallies - Nomura

With EUR/USD having broken 1.31 and more calls emerging over a further recovery short term, Nomura strategists still think their current forecasts of 1.28 for Q2 and 1.25 for Q3 "still look reasonable", adding that "we would continue to seek opportunities to sell EUR on rallies." The bank sees "EUR in a new regime of growth underperformance as key driver."