Forex Flash: AUD/USD is bearish but may still retrace to 1.0384 - Commerzbank

Last week's rally failed at 1.0300 (38.2% retracement), but Commerzbank analysts remain unable to rule out a deeper retracement to tougher resistance at 1.0375/80 and at 1.0384 the 55 day ma, “where we should again see failure”. However, intraday support is at 1.0194 ahead of 1.0117, and “our longer term outlook is negative”, targeting 0.9805 (2011-2012 support line and then 0.9404 the 2009 peak).

“The longer term chart pattern is increasingly viewed as a longer term top”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, looking for a medium term slide back to 1.0000 to unfold, then the base of an 20 month converging range (currently located at 0.9805).