UK: Unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.7% for March - TDS

Analysts at TDS are in line with consensus for today’s UK employment data, where they are looking for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.7% for March and ex-bonus wage growth to edge a tenth lower to 2.1% y/y.

Key Quotes

“The claimant count rate has remained in a 2.1-2.3% range for the last two years, so we would expect it to remain there again with today’s April data. The health of the labour market and its implications for consumer spending is something that we’re watching very closely in the UK right now, since if the labour market holds up then the next move from the BoE will be up, in line with market expectations, but if it starts to turn then the BoE could still deliver another rate cut if the real income squeeze becomes more apparent in consumer spending figures.”