Impact of hurricanes on Sept payrolls could end up being smaller - HSBC

HSBC Analysts out with their preview on the upcoming US labour market report, arguing that the impact of the Hurricanes on the payrolls data could be uncertain and smaller-than expected.

Key Quotes:

“The likely effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on the national labour market data are difficult to predict.

In 2005, hundreds of thousands of people were displaced by Hurricane Katrina. Massive job losses in the region were readily apparent in the September and October 2005 employment reports.

In contrast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics assessed in 2012 that Hurricane Sandy did not have a substantive impact on its estimates for national employment.

Figures on weekly initial claims suggest that over 100,000 people have filed for unemployment insurance in Texas and Florida as a consequence of the recent disasters.

However, the impact of the hurricanes on the September payroll data could end up being smaller, depending in part on how many of the affected persons worked or received pay for some portion of the relevant time period.“