Kiwi jobs data, the bottom line - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ noted that today’s Q3 figures paint a picture of a labour market that is continuing to tighten. At 4.6%, the unemployment rate is the lowest in 81⁄2 years.

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Wage growth appeared broadly stable outside of one-offs in the quarter, but we do believe that conditions for a shift higher are starting to develop.

We suspect today’s figures will have few immediate implications for the RBNZ. The monetary policy outlook is far from clear cut. However, the labour market, and its subsequent implications for the inflation outlook, remains one of the reasons we are still biased towards OCR hikes in time.