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4 Mar 2014
Flash: Upside risks for NZD/USD on the rise - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Niall O'Connor, FX Strategist at JPMorgan, the upside risks in NZD/USD are on the rise with focus now on the 0.8432 January peak.
Key Quotes
"Our medium term view for NZD is unchanged as we continue to view the overall consolidation phase below the
2013/2011 highs with a bullish bias."
"Shorter term, the upside risks for NZD/USD appear to be on the rise as the reversal from the early-February low developed with a trending bias. Given the contrast with the corrective action below the October peak, we are monitoring for signs of a more sustained bullish shift particularly against key resistance levels."
"Importantly, this week’s impulsive rally appears to be confirming those bullish risks while presenting a critical test. In line with the bullish setup, note the pullback from the mid-February high held key support in the .8265/20 zone (38.2/50% retracements from Feb low). This area should continue to hold in order to maintain the short term bullish setup."
"The focus is now on the .8370/.8432 resistance zone which includes the downtrendline from October, the February high and the action October peak. Strength above here would confirm the bullish prospects while suggesting a closer test of the .8545 Q4’13 high, if not the .8678 high from April ’13. As important, NZD continues to outperform on the crosses which is consistent with our short and medium term view."
Key Quotes
"Our medium term view for NZD is unchanged as we continue to view the overall consolidation phase below the
2013/2011 highs with a bullish bias."
"Shorter term, the upside risks for NZD/USD appear to be on the rise as the reversal from the early-February low developed with a trending bias. Given the contrast with the corrective action below the October peak, we are monitoring for signs of a more sustained bullish shift particularly against key resistance levels."
"Importantly, this week’s impulsive rally appears to be confirming those bullish risks while presenting a critical test. In line with the bullish setup, note the pullback from the mid-February high held key support in the .8265/20 zone (38.2/50% retracements from Feb low). This area should continue to hold in order to maintain the short term bullish setup."
"The focus is now on the .8370/.8432 resistance zone which includes the downtrendline from October, the February high and the action October peak. Strength above here would confirm the bullish prospects while suggesting a closer test of the .8545 Q4’13 high, if not the .8678 high from April ’13. As important, NZD continues to outperform on the crosses which is consistent with our short and medium term view."