NZ net migration unchanged in November 2017 - Westpac

Satish Ranchhod, Senior Economist at Westpac, notes that in New Zealand’s November saw a net inflow of 5,610 people into the country, unchanged from October.

Key Quotes

“The annual net inflow of migrants has continued to gradual ease to 70,300. We expect a further trend decline in net migration over the coming year.”

“Overall, net migration was largely unchanged in November, with a net inflow of 5,610 people on a permanent or long-term basis. That was a little higher than we had expected for a second month in a row.”

“However, on annual basis, net migration has continued to ease and is now running at 70,300 – down from 70,700 last month and below the peak of the 72,400 we saw earlier this year.”

“Looking at the details of the November result, we did see a moderation in new arrivals and a slight drop in the number of New Zealanders returning from abroad. This saw total arrival numbers falling from 10,920 to 10,800.”

“However, the fall in arrivals was offset by a pullback in departures – down from 5,310 to 5,190.”

“Smoothing though the month-to month volatility, two key trends remain. First, new arrival levels have flattened off. Second, departure levels have been trending up. In fact, departures of non-New Zealand citizens are 20% higher than this time last year. This group includes people who would have come over in recent years on temporary work and student visas. And following the surge in foreign arrivals that began in 2013, we are now seeing the normal ‘echo’ in departures. We expect that this trend will continue for some time yet, and will drive a substantial downturn in total net migration over the coming years. However, there is a question about how quickly departures will rise.”