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7 Mar 2014
European open: focus on NFPs
FXStreet (London) - Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens appeared before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. The testimony didn’t devote a huge amount of time to the exchange rate except for to say that the effects of the lower exchange rate had flowed through a little faster than expected, which was not seen as a problem by Stevens.
Stevens said that there may have been “an element of noise” in the fourth quarter inflation data.
“The general situation - 18 months of below-trend growth, a rise in unemployment, a marked slowdown in wages - is not one that would be obviously associated with a sustained rise in price pressures,”
“Our view remains that the outlook for inflation, while a little higher than before, is still consistent with the medium-term target.”
The Aussie dollar rallied to a high of USD0.9111 before selling off to USD0.9069.
Swiss unemployment month-on-month for February came in at 3.2 percent, in line with expectations and holding last month’s levels.
France’s trade deficit increased to EUR5.7 percent from last month’s EUR5.2bn deficit, led by a EUR610m decline in exports.
Expectations are for robust German industrial production numbers this morning, with a rise from 2.6 percent to 3.9 percent growth, however recent data suggests that it could break higher.
The main market focus today will be on US non-farm payrolls. Consensus expectations are for a 149k print, but we may see further downside to this already-weak forecast. Recent ADP and ISM reports have disappointed, but the weather excuse is beginning to run out of steam. January trade balance numbers are expected to show a slight widening to –USD39bn from –USD38.7bn.
Expectations north of the border are for Canada to add 15k jobs, though there may be upside potential in this given recent business sentiment surveys suggest companies are ready to hire again. Expectations are for a narrowing of the Canadian trade deficit, from USD1.66bn to USD1.2bn, aided by a weakened Canadian dollar, however export growth may be capped by US demand.
Stevens said that there may have been “an element of noise” in the fourth quarter inflation data.
“The general situation - 18 months of below-trend growth, a rise in unemployment, a marked slowdown in wages - is not one that would be obviously associated with a sustained rise in price pressures,”
“Our view remains that the outlook for inflation, while a little higher than before, is still consistent with the medium-term target.”
The Aussie dollar rallied to a high of USD0.9111 before selling off to USD0.9069.
Swiss unemployment month-on-month for February came in at 3.2 percent, in line with expectations and holding last month’s levels.
France’s trade deficit increased to EUR5.7 percent from last month’s EUR5.2bn deficit, led by a EUR610m decline in exports.
Expectations are for robust German industrial production numbers this morning, with a rise from 2.6 percent to 3.9 percent growth, however recent data suggests that it could break higher.
The main market focus today will be on US non-farm payrolls. Consensus expectations are for a 149k print, but we may see further downside to this already-weak forecast. Recent ADP and ISM reports have disappointed, but the weather excuse is beginning to run out of steam. January trade balance numbers are expected to show a slight widening to –USD39bn from –USD38.7bn.
Expectations north of the border are for Canada to add 15k jobs, though there may be upside potential in this given recent business sentiment surveys suggest companies are ready to hire again. Expectations are for a narrowing of the Canadian trade deficit, from USD1.66bn to USD1.2bn, aided by a weakened Canadian dollar, however export growth may be capped by US demand.