Tactical short EUR/SEK into Riksbank – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the Riksbank to keep rates unchanged at this week’s meeting, with the repo rate path still signalling hikes in Q4 2018.

Key Quotes

“Because of the market’s current pessimistic pricing of Riksbank tightening, the risks are skewed towards a positive SEK surprise.”

“We enter a short EUR/SEK position via a 10.55/10.45 put spread expiring Friday.”

“Tail risks come from the Swedish Democrats, but ultimately we do not expect political risk to be a medium-term SEK driver.”