US: Core CPI inflation to recover to a trend-like pace – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US core CPI to increase 0.231% m-o-m (2.192% y-o-y) in October after decelerating in August and September.

Key Quotes

“Part of the increase in core CPI inflation will likely be the result of an expected rebound in used vehicle prices as methodological changes introduced increased volatility this year.”

“We forecast a modest 0.1% m-o-m increase in CPI food prices, driven primarily by an expected pickup in prices for food away from home. Energy prices likely increased 1.9% m-o-m on a seasonally-adjusted basis.”

“Altogether, we expect headline CPI to increase 0.352% m-o-m, translating to 2.555% on a 12-month basis. Our forecast for CPI NSA is 252.965.”