When are the US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?

US monthly retail sales overview

Monday's US economic docket highlights the delayed release of monthly retail sales figures for the month of January, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Following a slump of 1.2% in the previous month, consensus estimates point to a follow-through decline of 0.1% m/m in January. Meanwhile, core reading (excluding automobiles), is projected to have rebounded during the reported month and post modest growth of 0.2% on a monthly basis as against a sharp decline of 1.8% in December. Adding to this, the growth for the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is also seen rising 0.6% m/m as compared to a sharp deceleration to -1.7 recorded in the previous month.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of -1.0369 or less, the pair may go up reaching a range of 40-pips in the first 15-minutes and 73-pips in the following 4-hours.

Alternatively, the reaction to a higher than expected reading, with a relative deviation of 0.75 or higher, could be in the range of 38-pips in the first 15-minutes and 79-pips in the following 4-hours. In the last five releases, the pair moved, on an average, 30-pips in the 15-minutes after the data release and 52-pips in the following 4-hours.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels for trading the major: “Some support awaits at 1.1235 which was the February low. 1.1215 was the trough in 2018 and may provide further support. The fresh 2019 bottom at 1.1176 is next. 1.1115 already dates back to 2017.”

“1.1250 is the recent high, and it is followed by 1.1275 that provided support in mid-February. 1.1290 is the next level to watch after it cushioned euro/dollar in early March. 1.1310 and 1.1325 are next,” he added further.

Key Notes

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About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).