US: Growth slowdown but no recession - NAB

According to Tony Kelly, senior economist at NAB, early data coming out from the US economy are pointing towards a slowing in economic growth in Q1 2019, although business surveys remain generally solid.

Key Quotes

“Inversion of the yield curve has raised concerns that the US will go into recession but our own modelling – which adds to the information content found in the yield curve – suggests that this is unlikely.”

“The Fed’s monetary policy stance has shifted and is less likely to react to a small overshoot of its inflation target; as a result we have removed our call for a Fed rate hike and now expect it to remain unchanged over 2019 and 2020 with both upside and downside risks around this outlook.”