When are the Eurozone flash CPIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?

Eurozone flash CPIs overview

Eurostat will publish the first estimate of Eurozone inflation figures for March at 0900 GMT today. The headline CPI is anticipated to accelerate by 1.5% y/y, same as that seen previously while the core inflation is seen a tad softer at 0.9% y/y during the reported month vs. 1.0% last.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 30 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 45-50 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

Haresh Menghani, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels ahead of the key release: “A sustained move beyond the 1.1245-50 region will reinforce the expectations and trigger a short-covering bounce and assist the pair to aim towards reclaiming the 1.1300 round figure mark, albeit any subsequent up-move seems more likely to remain capped near the 1.1325-30 supply zone.”

“Alternatively, a decisive break through the 1.1200 mark will shift the pendulum back in favor of bearish traders and accelerate the slide back towards YTD lows, around the 1.1175 region. A follow-through selling has the potential to continue dragging the pair further towards challenging the 1.1100 round figure mark, coinciding with descending trend-line support extending from lows touched in Aug. 2018 through Nov. 2018 swing low,” Haresh adds.

Key Notes

Eurozone inflation and US retail sales amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

ECB's Lautenschlaeger: Inflation is rising slower than expected

EUR futures: bearish, neutral near term

About Eurozone flash CPIs estimate

The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).