GBP/USD technical analysis: Probing 38.2% Fib retracement hurdle

• GBP/USD is chipping away at the key Fib level of 1.3062.
• A break higher would expose the 50-day MA, currently at 1.3103.

GBP/USD is currently flirting with 1.3062 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3381-1.2866 – having confirmed a bullish breakout earlier this week.

The pair closed at 1.3032 on Tuesday, confirming a falling wedge breakout on the daily chart. So far, the follow-through to that bearish-to-bullish trend change has been mixed.

The currency pair jumped to the 50-day moving average (MA) hurdle at 1.3102 on Wednesday, but closed at 1.3049, marking a rejection at the key average and a failure to close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

However, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reporting bullish conditions with an above-50 print and both 5- and 10-day moving averages (MAs) trending north, a re-test of the 50-day M, currently at 1.3103 looks likely. The case for a rise to 50-day MA would strengthen once the pair beats the 4H 200-candle MA, currently at 1.3077.

That said, another failure to hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement could end up sending the spot back to the 200-day MA at 1.2985.

Daily chart

Trend: Bullish above key Fib

Pivot points