US Consumer Confidence: Still elevated, but below its 2018 high - Wells Fargo

Data released today showed that the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index in June slipped back below 100, at 98.2. Analysts at Wells Fargo, point out that it was up slightly from an earlier estimate, perhaps reflecting the peaceful ending to the Mexico tariff situation. They see that while still elevated, sentiment is below its 2018 high.

Key Quotes: 

“That is a scant upward revision from the initial read two week ago, perhaps reflecting the fact that the Mexico tariffs went away. That said, saber-rattling with Iran, and ongoing worries about the trade war persist, which may weigh on sentiment in coming months. That risk was evident in the slump in another measure of confidence reported earlier this week.”

“After core PCE ticked up in in a separate report this morning, we learn here that inflation expectations for next year rose to 2.7% in June. That is a slight uptick from the first look, but about in-line with where expectations have been the past couple years.”

“Home-buying conditions improved as mortgage rates fell.”