RUB will be negatively affected if the US falls into recession – Rabobank

Piotr Matys, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, suggests that supported by oil prices, attractive carry trade (despite the CBR cutting rates by 125bps to 6.25%) and optimism about the phase one trade deal the ruble was on track to end 2019 as the best performing EM currency, but it  may change in 2020.

Key Quotes

“As a commodity currency, the RUB will be negatively affected if the US falls into recession. Trade truce is unlikely to last and China will lose more momentum.”

“Domestic factors will not be supportive as GDP growth will remain sluggish. Strong bipartisan anti-Russian sentiment in the US Congress could culminate in severe economic sanctions being imposed for meddling in the 2016 presidential elections.”