USD/CAD: Local data will not operate in a vacuum – TDS

The Canadian employment data won't be reported in a vacuum, so the impact on the loonie will reflect the cross-sections of risk sentiment, the US report, and the Canadian one, per TD Securities. 

Key quotes

“We forecast a 4m decline for employment, in line with the market consensus, which may prove conservative given 6m Canadians had applied for emergency benefits by the April reference week.” 

“The US report looks poised to be the worst on record. Risk markets are likely to edge lower, revealing the string of narrative shifts related to the renewed US/China tensions, the sinking prospects of a V-shaped recovery, and the impact of the data releases.”

“We remain long USD/CAD, expecting an eventual push back to 1.4650. The monthly employment reports should help get us there faster.”