US Retail Sales Preview: S&P 500 to rise as investors are bullish

Economists expect US retail sales figures to have risen in June. The upbeat market mood implies only a devastating report would dampen the mood, while anything else would be market-positive, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports.

Key quotes

“Headline sales tumbled by 8.2% in March and 14.7% in April, before rebounding by 17.7% in May. For June, estimates stand at an increase of 5%, sending the total volume closer to the levels that were seen in February.” 

“The Retail Sales Control Group – also known as the ‘core of the core’ – has suffered less than the headline, surprisingly rising in March by 3.2%, then tumbling by 12.4% in April and bouncing by 11% in May. The measure is projected to rise by 3.6% in June. That would put the control group back to pre-pandemic levels.”

“If sales meet expectations, marginally miss them, or surprise with a beat, the S&P 500 will likely rise and the safe-haven dollar could fall. Only negative retail sales statistics would send stocks down the greenback higher – and that seems highly unlikely.”