US dollar to lurch higher on strong unemployment rate and average earnings readings – ING

A very hawkish set of FOMC minutes on Wednesday is still reverberating across markets, keeping the dollar reasonably well-supported. With the minutes revealing that the Fed already feels that conditions have been met for a first hike, today's December jobs data should keep the dollar bid on dips, according to economists at ING.

Fed would welcome a stronger dollar

“Given that the Fed seems to have fully swung behind the hawkish narrative, we would expect the dollar to stay strong today and be bid on dips even if the nonfarm payrolls disappoint.” 

“The consensus seems to be for a 450K headline jobs number, a 4.1% unemployment rate, and 0.4% month-on-month average hourly earnings. Right now, with the Fed's rotation to inflation, it feels like the unemployment rate and average earnings will be more important. Any strong readings there could see the dollar pop higher.”

“DXY is in the middle of its six-week trading range, but today could be a catalyst for a push back to the highs near 97.00.”