Trading the RBA: Going in 50s – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) said, in their latest, report, that they believe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has the room to surprise markets to the upside on Tuesday.

Key quotes

“All analysts (including us) expect the RBA to hike the target cash rate by 50bps tomorrow bar one (75bps). The RBA surprised the market in May and June, so the possibility of a 65bps hike cannot be ruled out.”

“We anticipate the RBA's end '22 headline CPI forecast to be around 7.5% y/y, exceeding the RBA Governor's 7% target with trimmed clocking in around 5.75-6%. This should support a 50bps Sept hike.”

“Our other economic forecasts are as follows vs the RBA's May SoMP f/c's in brackets. Headline CPI Dec'23: 2.75% (3.25%). GDP 2022: 3.9% (4.5%), 2023: 1% (2.75%). U/e rate Dec'22: 4% (3.75%), Dec'23 4.5% (3.5%).“

“A 50bps hike and similar RBA forecasts to ours would likely see the market view the meeting as dovish.”